If your packaging costs have felt unpredictable lately, you’re not imagining it. The materials that go into making folding cartons, corrugated boxes, and printed packaging — SBS board, inks, coatings, adhesives — are all being affected by a combination of forces that show no sign of stabilizing anytime soon.

Here’s what’s driving it, and what it means for your brand.

Tariffs are hitting materials hard.

SBS board — the solid bleached sulfate paperboard used in most premium folding cartons — is sourced globally, and tariff changes are creating real cost pressure across the supply chain. Major North American producers pushed through $70 per ton price increases in March 2026, followed by another $50 per ton increase announced for June. Two significant waves in the same year is not normal — it’s a signal of how much pressure the supply chain is under. What you paid for a carton run six months ago is not what you’ll pay today.

Inks are feeling it too. Many pigments and chemical components used in printing inks are imported, and tariff fluctuations are pushing ink prices in ways that are difficult to predict or absorb without passing some of it along.

Energy costs are compounding the problem.

Gas and energy prices affect packaging costs in ways most brands don’t think about. Manufacturing facilities run on energy. Freight runs on fuel. When energy prices spike, the cost of producing and shipping packaging moves with them — even if the raw material prices haven’t changed.

The result is a pricing environment where multiple inputs are moving at once, making it harder than ever to get a stable number and plan around it.

What this means for brands.

The instinct for many brands is to wait it out or shop around for a better price. That’s understandable — but it often backfires. Chasing the lowest quote in a volatile market can mean sacrificing quality, lead time, or supplier reliability at exactly the moment you can least afford it.

It’s also worth resisting the urge to make long-term substrate decisions based on short term pricing pressure. Switching materials to chase savings can create its own costs — retooling dies, requalifying specs, potential impact on shelf presence. The volatility driving prices today may look different in six months. Hasty structural changes to your packaging rarely pay off.

How to approach it.

A few things worth considering as you navigate this environment:

Build more lead time into your planning. Pricing snapshots have a shorter shelf life than they used to. Getting quotes further in advance — and moving faster when you find a good one — gives you more control than reactive buying.

Look at your run sizes. In a volatile market, the economics of larger runs can shift. Consolidating orders when pricing is favorable can be a meaningful hedge against future increases.

Stay close to what’s happening. Tariff situations evolve quickly. Brands that are paying attention to trade policy and energy markets — even at a high level — are better positioned to make decisions proactively rather than reactively.

Published by the Alpine Printing and Packaging team.